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The Latino Tsunami
The Browning of America

Since America's founding, blacks have had secure claim to being the nation's largest minority. But with the 2000 Census, that epoch has ended. America's Hispanic population now rivals its black population and will quickly surpass it.

Prior to the 2000 Census various political commentators, reporters, academics, and government entities predicted that while the number of Latinos in the United States would eventually surpass the number of African Americans, this phenomenon would not happen until some time in the very distant future. This fuzzy notion of eventual Latino numerical supremacy was reflected as early as 1980 in an article by Charles P. Henry, an African American scholar, who reported that according to the U.S. Census Bureau it would take more than 75 years—2055—for Latinos to surpass the African American population. Even as recently as 1995, scholars, again relying on data produced by the U.S. Census Bureau, incorrectly predicted that by the year 2000 Latinos would represent only 11 percent of the U.S. population. While this prediction turned out to be somewhat closer to reality, it was nevertheless wrong. Curiously, these predictions failed to take into account that from the 1970 U.S. Census on, the Latino population consistently demonstrated exponential growth, a pattern that did not mirror that of the general population.

The 1970 Census was the first census to identify the Latino population in a comprehensive way. Prior to 1970 other methods, including country of birth, country of birth of parents, and mother tongue, were used to count only certain sectors of the Latino population. In 1980 and 1990 the U.S. Census obtained data on Latinos using self-identification questions that changed from one decade to the other.

The 1970 Census counted 9.6 million Latinos in the United States. While this number was not alarming in the greater scheme of the U.S. population (which numbered 203 million) and also in comparison to the African American population (which at that time numbered 22.6 million), it would serve as a benchmark for the subsequent census numbers in demonstrating the incredible growth of the Latino population.

When the 1980 Census was released most of the information describing the general population was of little interest (it had grown to 226.6 million). The African American population (26.5 million) had grown at a faster rate than the general population. Indeed, according to some scholars these numbers were expected. What was not expected was the incredible growth of the Latino population. The Latino population ballooned from 9.6 million in 1970 to 14.6 million in 1980, representing an increase of 52.1 percent over the prior 10-year period.

In 1990, the growth of the Latino population spiked off the charts, increasing by 7.7 million to 22.3 million. At the same time the African American population grew a mere 3.4 million, to 29.9 million, demonstrating a slower growth rate than in the prior 10 years.

It was, however, the 2000 Census that finally identified the Latino population as the tsunami that would eventually overwhelm the African American population and sweep across the entire country. Between 1990 and 2000, the Latino population had grown by an astounding 13 million to 35.3 million, representing 12.6 percent of the population. In comparison, the African American population increased by only 6.5 million to 36.4 million, representing 12.9 percent of the U.S. population.

And, of course, the phenomenal growth of the Latino population shows no sign of relenting. There is no better example of this than the fact that shortly after the 2000 population numbers were released the U.S. Census Bureau predicted that the Latino population would eventually surpass the African American population in the year 2005. It was wrong by two years: in January 2003, Latinos officially became the largest minority in the United States.

The projections for future years are even more astounding. According to the U.S. Census, not only will Latinos continue to outnumber African Americans over the next several decades, but the numerical superiority will be smothering. In the year 2020, African Americans will represent 13.8 percent of the U.S. population, whereas Latinos will represent 17.0 percent. By the year 2030, it is projected that African Americans will represent 14.1 percent of the total U.S. population, while Latinos will represent 19.4 percent. Skipping to the year 2050, it is projected that African Americans will represent 14.7 percent of the population, and the Latino population will skyrocket to 24.3 percent.

While the projection of Latino growth is impressive, those numbers may well turn out to be far too conservative. The Census Bureau acknowledges that of the three components for predicting the future growth of Latinos—births, deaths, and international migration—international migration is the least predictable. Historically, international migration, along with high birthrates, has been one of the most significant factors driving the tremendous growth of the Latino population in the United States.

The U.S. Census Bureau based the immigration trend between 1999 and 2020 on five assumptions. First, increased immigration during the 1990s was the direct result of the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986, which made it possible for people to become legal residents and citizens. These new citizens then sponsored their immediate relatives. The Census Bureau concluded that this flow was transitory; it further assumed that migration from such sponsorships would crest between 2000 and 2010, then gradually decline to zero. "In particular, legal migration from Mexico is assumed to return to the levels of the early 1990s by 2010." Second, there would be no change in U.S. immigration policy that would affect the number of immigrant visas available in those categories that have numerical limitations between 1998 and 2020. Third, the number of refugees arriving in the United States would drop between 1998 and 2020, except for an increase reflected by arrivals from the republics that used to be Yugoslavia. Fourth, illegal immigration from Mexico and Central America would not change significantly from those levels assumed for the 1990s base series. Finally, legal migration from places other than Mexico, Central America, and refugee countries will fluctuate, depending on events in the countries and the ability of those countries to supply immigrants.

Missing in this discussion is the possibility that there will be another amnesty program for undocumented residents or a guest worker program with Mexico.

Prior to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, President George W. Bush and President Vicente Fox were seriously discussing various amnesty proposals for Mexicans residing illegally in the United States. While those talks are now on the back burner, Mexico continues to press for such a program. If time and events make a new amnesty program possible, then we will undoubtedly see a repeat of the process set in motion by IRCA. Once again the numbers of Latinos will swell, not only through legalization but also through immigrant visas granted to family members of newly legalized residents.

And what kind of numbers would those be? In November 2001, the Pew Hispanic Center estimated that in mid-2001 the number of undocumented Mexicans residing in the United States ranged from 3.4 to 5.8 million and the number of undocumented Central Americans ranged from 1.2 to 1.9 million, bringing the total pool of potential new Latino residents to between 4.6 and 7.7 million.

As each year passes, the number of illegal Mexican and Central American immigrants in the United States increases, and because of this undeniable fact, the numbers presented above are no longer reliable. However, assuming for the moment that the 7.7 million number is accurate, and that many of these immigrants would qualify for legal residency under a new amnesty program, then one begins to get the picture that the numbers predicted by the U.S. Census Bureau are totally unrealistic—and in fact significantly higher.

Now let us consider the possibility of a new guest worker program with Mexico. Between 1942 and 1964 some 5 million Mexicans were admitted into the United States as guest workers under the bracero program. The Mexican workers were brought to the United States largely to perform work on farms in the Southwest. However, the program did not include any provision for legalization of the Mexican workers. Once their term ended, they ostensibly returned to Mexico.

The program ended in 1964, and since that time U.S. farmers have repeatedly lobbied legislators to reinstate it in one form or another. Most recently, the Agricultural Job Opportunity Benefits and Security Act of 1999 was introduced into the U.S. Senate, with a companion bill in the House of Representatives on March 22, 2000. These two bills included a provision that allowed for the legalization of workers who had been employed in agriculture for a certain period of time during the 12 months prior to the introduction of the bill. These bills did not pass, but similar proposals may succeed in the future.

What would a new bracero program mean for the growth of the Latino population? Like the legalization program, it would significantly increase the number of Latino residents. A study conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center arrived at this very conclusion, though it used a slightly different set of facts as the basis for its study. According to this study, approximately 1.2 million of the 2.5 million persons employed for wages on U.S. farms are undocumented. Using the criteria employed for the seasonal agricultural workers (SAWs) program under IRCA, an estimated 600,000 to 840,000 workers would be allowed to legalize their status. But more significantly, if the newly legalized workers left the farm workforce at the same rate as did the SAWs after they were legalized in 1987–1988, approximately 125,000 new workers would be needed each year for farmwork. The study also concluded that in order to replace all those who left all types of farmwork, at least 250,000 new workers would be needed each year if farm labor conditions did not change at all.

Admittedly, not all farmworkers are Latinos, but historically Mexico has provided much of the labor used in U.S. agriculture, and there is little reason to conclude that this pattern will change. It is reasonable to assume that a new bracero program would result in increased legal Latino immigration to the United States and in the process the Latino population would balloon.

If either a legalization program or a new bracero program (or both) is instituted by the United States, there is little doubt that the Latino population would increase in such dramatic numbers that the census projections would be irrelevant.

Copyright © 2004 by Nicolás C. Vaca.